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CBOSNEWS

09/2024

2024-04-23

Do Polish People Think that a Russian Attack on NATO Countries Is Likely?

An increasing number of western experts, politicians and members of the armed forces have been talking about the possibility of a Russian attack on NATO countries, usually mentioning particular timescales within which such an attack could happen. These mostly range from three to eight years, although some give NATO even less time. What do the people CBOS asked think? It turns out that over a half of Polish people (57%) believe that a Russian attack on NATO countries is likely, with 14% thinking it is very likely. One in three of those surveyed (32%) are of the opposite opinion, though only 4% believe it to be quite unlikely. One in nine respondents (11%) have no opinion about this.
Rysunek
Those who think a Russian attack is unlikely tend to be younger, less religiously observant and more interested in politics. Fear of a Russian attack is strongest among Law and Justice voters and weakest among voters of the Confederation and the Left. In the latter two groups those who consider such an attack to be unlikely are in the majority.
More on this subject in the CBOS report.
This ‘Current Events and Problems’ survey (407) was conducted using a mixed-mode procedure on a representative sample of named adult residents of Poland, randomly selected from the National Identity Number (PESEL) register. Respondents independently selected one of the following methods: Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI); Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI), respondents receiving researchers’ telephone numbers in an introductory letter from CBOS; Computer Assisted Web Interview (CAWI), where respondents filled in the online questionnaire independently, gaining access by means of a login and password provided in an introductory letter from CBOS. In all three cases the questionnaire had the same structure and comprised the same questions. The survey was carried out between 7 – 17 March 2024 inclusive on a sample of 1089 people (60.8% using the CAPI method, 24.3% CATI and 14.9% CAWI). CBOS has been conducting statutory research using the above procedure since May 2020, stating in each case the percentage of personal, telephone and internet interviews.
 
 
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