In the second half of February, about three months before the presidential elections in Poland, 71% of those eligible to vote are declaring participation with at least 99% probability. The greatest support of all potential voters – regardless of the declared certainty of participation – is enjoyed by Rafał Trzaskowski, designated by the Civic Coalition (KO). If the first round of elections were to take place now, 34% of those interested in participating in the elections would vote for him. The candidate of Law and Justice (PiS) Karol Nawrocki (25%) would receive fewer votes, while Sławomir Mentzen of the Confederation for Freedom and Independence would be third, with 17%. The other candidates enjoy much less support. The Third Way candidate Szymon Hołownia could count on 5% of the votes, 3% would vote for Grzegorz Braun and Krzysztof Stanowski each, and even less, at 2% each, would support the left-wing candidates: Magdalena Biejat from the Left and Adrian Zandberg from the party Razem (Together).

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

The potential voters of Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki are the most certain of voting for the candidates they have indicated. In the case of these two politicians, we also observe the highest percentages declaring 100% support. Voters of Grzegorz Braun and Sławomir Mentzen are also relatively sure of their decision, although in the case of the latter, only half are certain of giving him 100% support. Less certainty of voting – especially when taking into account the percentages of respondents declaring a 100% intention to vote for a given person – is visible in case of Szymon Hołownia, Adrian Zandberg, Magdalena Biejat, and Krzysztof Stanowski.

To what extent, in percentages, are you certain that you will vote for this candidate?

We checked how electorates of individual political parties will vote in the presidential election. The preferences of KO supporters are the most clear-cut: 94% of them support Rafał Trzaskowski. Karol Nawrocki can count on votes from PiS supporters to a slightly smaller extent (82%), and Sławomir Mentzen and Szymon Hołownia are even less popular in the electorates of their political groups. Sławomir Mentzen's candidacy is supported by 71% of the Confederation electorate, while one-eighth would vote for Grzegorz Braun (12%). Among the Third Way electorate, Szymon Hołownia enjoys the greatest support (70%), but one-ninth of them want to vote for Rafał Trzaskowski (11%), while Magdalena Biejat and Sławomir Mentzen also have their share of this group of voters (4% each). The electorate of the Left is definitely the most divided in its preferences. The most popular candidate among them is Rafał Trzaskowski (39%), over a quarter would vote for Magdalena Biejat (27%), and one-eight would support Adrian Zandberg (12%).

Among voters without specific party sympathies, Sławomir Mentzen and Karol Nawrocki are the most popular (14% and 13% of declarations of vote, respectively), and one in ten would support Krzysztof Stanowski (10%).