At various stages of the war in Ukraine, the prevailing belief among Poles was always that Ukrainians (with the support of the West) should continue to fight and not make any concessions to Russia. However, since the beginning of the second year of the war, this percentage has been steadily decreasing, and in the last three months it has dropped significantly. Currently, for the first time since the outbreak of the war, the prevailing view in Polish society is that the main goal should be to end the conflict and make peace, even if Ukraine has to give up part of its territory or independence (55% compared to 39% in September). Only less than one in three Poles believes that the fight should continue and that no concessions should be made to Russia (31% compared to 46% in September). This sudden change is probably related both to the increasingly bad reports from the Ukrainian front and the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election, him announcing that he would limit support for the fighting Ukraine and strive to end the conflict.

In your opinion, should the primary goal be…

We also asked once again about the predicted end of the war. The expectations at different stages of the conflict were subject to clear fluctuations related to current media reports. In most measurements, opinions were quite divided, and neither the favourable nor the unfavourable predictions for Ukraine clearly prevailed. Against this background, the latest results undoubtedly stand out. Currently, the vast majority of respondents expect that the conflict will end unfavourably for Ukraine (64% in total, compared to 48% in September), predicting that it will be forced to give up part of its territory (61%), or that Russia will subjugate it in its entirety (3%). It is worth noting that despite a significant increase in the last three months, this result is consistent with a more general upward trend observed since the end of 2023.

The share of positive forecasts for Ukraine is the lowest since the full-scale Russian invasion (15% in total, compared to 25% in September), in which 12% of respondents expect that Russia will withdraw from Ukrainian territories attacked from 2022, and 3% also believe that it will withdraw from the territories occupied since 2014. The percentage of “don't know” answers has never been so low and stands at 20%, compared to 27% in September 2024.

How do you think the war will end?