A year ago, most Poles believed that in the coming years, the expansion of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to NATO countries was possible. Today, opinions are similar, but the percentage of respondents who consider such a scenario very likely has slightly decreased, while the percentage of those who think it is rather unlikely has increased. However, pessimists (52%) still clearly outnumber optimists (40%).

There is often talk of a potential armed attack by Russia on NATO countries that could occur within the next 3 to 8 years. How likely does such an attack seem to you?

Similarly to a year ago, besides the assessment of the international situation and opinions regarding Russia's readiness to take military action against NATO countries, we also used a behavioural indicator in the survey, measuring the willingness to take specific actions in the event of Russian aggression. The result is similar to April 2024. Then, 14%, and now 11% of respondents chose the most extreme declaration in the event of direct threat, claiming they would be ready to fight with weapons in hand. The most significant difference between measurements concerns the declaration “I would support the defence of the country without participating in combat.” The willingness to adopt such a stance increased by 7 percentage points over the year and remains the most frequently given answer to this question. Almost one-fifth would leave their place of residence in the event of a threat. Like a year ago, a significant majority of this group consists of people who would seek refuge not in Poland but abroad. A quarter of Poles say that in the event of a military threat, they would not take any special actions and would try to live as before.

What do you think you would do in the event of an armed attack by Russia on Poland?

Like a year ago, gender is a significant factor differentiating declarations regarding direct participation in combat. Currently, 20% of men declare willingness to take such actions, and only 2% of women. Regarding declared support for the defence of the country without participating in combat, the difference is now much smaller: 40% of men and 35% of women make such assurances. Interestingly, the willingness to engage in armed combat (except for the 65+ age group) does not depend on age. No group stands out in this regard. This is certainly partly a result of the fact that for many years there has been no conscription into the military, resulting in no generation of Poles feeling better prepared for combat than others. Above-average willingness to flee abroad in the event of a Russian attack is particularly noted among individuals who can afford such a choice, namely the self-employed and well-off people, as well as among young people (18-34 years old) and those working in office jobs.

What specific actions have respondents taken in relation to potential threats? Both a year ago and currently, nearly one-fifth have declared that they have checked how to act in the event of war. A similar percentage have checked where the nearest shelter is located. Once again, just like a year ago, one in nine respondents declares that they are saving cash in case of war. However, it has become more common for someone to stockpile food, medicine, and other essentials (12% compared to 7% a year earlier). Despite a relatively high number of respondents declaring an intention to go abroad in the event of war, only 5% have made any preparations in this regard.

Regarding the potential threat of an attack from Russia, have you…: