Since April 2022, we have regularly asked Poles about their predictions regarding the end of the war in Ukraine. Since December 2024, most respondents have assumed that Ukraine will have to relinquish part of its territory. Currently, 55% hold this view. However, compared to the previous survey in December 2025, there is a noted decrease in pessimism and an increase in optimism. This is evidenced by an 8-point decrease in the number of people convinced of the inevitability of Ukraine losing territory, a slight decrease in the proportion of those believing Russia will take over all of Ukraine (from 8% to 6%). Meanwhile, there is a 6-point increase in the number of Poles who believe the war will end with Russia's withdrawal: a rise from 6% to 11% for those who think Russia will withdraw from territories taken after February 24, 2022, and an increase from 2% to 3% for those who believe Russia will also withdraw from territories occupied in 2014.

How do you think the war will end?

Opinions on foreign aid to Ukraine are quite divided. The largest group (39%) believe that the military, financial, and humanitarian aid provided by Western countries is sufficient. Among the others, more people think the aid is too much (27%) rather than insufficient (22%). A significant portion of respondents did not take a stance (12%).

Do you think that the assistance (military, financial, humanitarian) provided to Ukraine by Western countries is:

Although supporters of Ukraine's accession to the European Union still outnumber opponents, there have been significant shifts against Ukraine since October 2023. Currently, only 9% of respondents support Ukraine joining the EU as soon as possible, the lowest ever recorded (a 9-point decrease since October 2023). Meanwhile, 41% support Ukraine's EU membership but without haste (a 15-point decrease). Opposition to Ukraine joining the EU is at a record high of 40% (a 23-point increase since October 2023).

In your opinion, should Ukraine become a member of the European Union in the future?