07/2025
2025-04-10
Most Polish People Doubt whether Europe would Be Able to Support Ukraine’s Defence Effectively without US Help
Many European commentators and some leading politicians, such as Emmanuel Macron or Friedrich Merz, have reacted to Donald Trump’s moves regarding Ukraine with the suggestion that Europe should stop relying on American help and accelerate the process of arming itself, and also prepare for being the sole support of Ukraine’s defence. There are rumours that the USA are considering withdrawing from leadership of NATO forces in Europe, which could be a prelude to leaving NATO altogether. This would leave Europe isolated in the face of the Russian threat. But would Europe without US help be able to support Ukraine to the extent that its effective defence remained possible? The people CBOS surveyed were doubtful about this: the majority (60%) thought not, while only a little over one in four (28%) thought Europe could manage it.
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Confidence in Europe’s ability to support Ukraine’s defence unaided was much more frequently expressed by men, as well as by people with better education and left-wing views. It is worth noting that the traditionally more pacifist Left is currently in Poland much more convinced of the sense and ultimate success of Ukraine’s war effort and of the sense of European countries arming themselves.
More on this subject in the forthcoming CBOS report.
This ‘Current Events and Problems’ survey (419) was conducted using a mixed-mode procedure on a representative sample of named adult residents of Poland, randomly selected from the National Identity Number (PESEL) register. Respondents independently selected one of the following methods: Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI); Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI), respondents receiving researchers’ telephone numbers in an introductory letter from CBOS; Computer Assisted Web Interview (CAWI), where respondents filled in the online questionnaire independently, gaining access by means of a login and password provided in an introductory letter from CBOS. In all three cases the questionnaire had the same structure and comprised the same questions. The survey was carried out between 6 – 16 March 2025 inclusive on a sample of 1047 people (62.3% using the CAPI method, 23.6% CATI and 14.1% CAWI). CBOS has been conducting statutory research using the above procedure since May 2020, stating in each case the percentage of personal, telephone and internet interviews.
