Most Poles do not expect that the activities of the subcommittee newly convened to investigate the 2010 Polish Air Force Tu-154 crash at Smolensk airport (‘the Smolensk air disaster’) will lead to any meaningful breakthrough in casting light on the causes of this tragedy. The most frequent view (28%) is that the work of the subcommittee will result in additions to the 2011 report of the Committee for Investigation of National Aviation Accidents under Jerzy Miller, but will not in any significant way change the conclusions contained in that report concerning the causes of the crash. Only 23% of those asked think that the subcommittee will find causes of the crash different from those contained in the 2011 report.

There is a correlation between what people expect from the newly-convened subcommittee and their opinions of what is currently known about the causes of the Tu-154 crash. Respondents unsatisfied with the findings thus far are more likely to believe that the subcommittee will make additions to the report of Jerzy Miller’s committee (39% of those who think that more explanation is required concerning the causes of the crash and 33% of those who believe that, in essence, nothing has yet been explained).

More on this subject in the CBOS report.