17/2020
2020-06-16
The Presidential Election: Participation and Voting Intentions
At the end of May and the very beginning of June, when the exact date of the presidential election was still unknown to the overwhelming majority of people in this survey, 84% of them said they wanted to vote in this election, and 72% were certain they would.
The favourite in the election was the incumbent, President Andrzej Duda, with 48.6% support among those intending to vote. After allowing for a margin of error, it can be said with 95% certainty that, if the election were taking place at the same time as the survey, Andrzej Duda would get between 45.6% and 51.5% of the total votes. This leaves open the question of whether a second round would be needed before it was clear who would be elected head of state.
The most serious rival to Andrzej Duda is Rafał Trzaskowski, who only entered the fray a mere few days before the start of this survey but had already gained the support of 16.2% of respondents.
|
More on this subject in the CBOS report.
This ‘Current Events and Problems’ survey (359) was conducted on a representative random sample of named adult residents of Poland, using a mixed-mode procedure.
Respondents independently selected one of the following methods:
- Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI);
- Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI), respondents receiving researchers’ telephone numbers in an introductory letter from CBOS;
- Computer Assisted Web Interview (CAWI), where respondents filled in the online questionnaire independently, gaining access by means of a login and password provided in an introductory letter from CBOS.
- Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI);
- Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI), respondents receiving researchers’ telephone numbers in an introductory letter from CBOS;
- Computer Assisted Web Interview (CAWI), where respondents filled in the online questionnaire independently, gaining access by means of a login and password provided in an introductory letter from CBOS.
In all three cases the questionnaire had the same structure and comprised the same questions. The survey was carried out between 22 May and 4 June 2020 inclusive on a sample of 1308 people (61.6% using the CAPI method, 24.4% CATI and 14% CAWI).
