23/2024
2024-10-15
Poles Increasingly Pessimistic in Their Predictions of How the War in Ukraine Will End
Currently the dominant opinion among Poles is that, in the end, Ukraine will have to give up some of its territory (44%). At the same time optimistic voices are at an all-time low: that Russia will retreat from territories occupied in 2022 (19%) and in 2014 (6%). In addition, 4% of those surveyed assume that Russia will subjugate all of Ukraine, A huge 27% are unable to form an opinion on the matter. These results suggest that Polish people have been more influenced by reports of the worsening situation for the Ukrainian army on the main segments of the front, than by triumphant news of the Kursk offensive.
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One can suppose, that if not for the Kursk offensive, predictions would be even gloomier. Cross analysis shows that people who approve of Ukraine’s advance into Russian territory are more likely to be optimistic about the end of the war. Meanwhile, the dominant opinion that the war will end with Ukraine having to cede some of its territory is markedly more widespread among younger respondents and those who are better educated.
More on this subject in the CBOS report.
This ‘Current Events and Problems’ survey (413) was conducted using a mixed-mode procedure on a representative sample of named adult residents of Poland, randomly selected from the National Identity Number (PESEL) register. Respondents independently selected one of the following methods: Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI); Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI), respondents receiving researchers’ telephone numbers in an introductory letter from CBOS; Computer Assisted Web Interview (CAWI), where respondents filled in the online questionnaire independently, gaining access by means of a login and password provided in an introductory letter from CBOS. In all three cases the questionnaire had the same structure and comprised the same questions. The survey was carried out between 12 – 22 September 2024 inclusive on a sample of 941 people (64.2% using the CAPI method, 23% CATI and 12.9% CAWI). CBOS has been conducting statutory research using the above procedure since May 2020, stating in each case the percentage of personal, telephone and internet interviews.
