24/2023
2023-10-03
Who do Poles Think Will Win the Forthcoming Elections?
According to responses collected in the CBOS September survey it looks like Law and Justice will win the elections to the Sejm. In the Senate seats could be fairly evenly distributed between Law and Justice and its partners on the one hand, and a probable coalition of opposition parties on the other.
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Can such predictions prove to be right? Polish people undoubtedly take an interest in politics and can draw conclusions from the progress of the election campaigns. Thus, in September 2019 Law and Justice was indicated as the winner of the upcoming elections to the Sejm by 77% of respondents. The party did, in fact, win, gaining 44% of the vote. Four years earlier, in September 2015, a Law and Justice victory was predicted by 60% of those surveyed. On that occasion the party won with 38% of the vote.
More on this subject in the CBOS report.
This ‘Current Events and Problems’ survey (401) was conducted using a mixed-mode procedure on a representative sample of named adult residents of Poland, randomly selected from the National Identity Number (PESEL) register. Respondents independently selected one of the following methods: Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI); Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI), respondents receiving researchers’ telephone numbers in an introductory letter from CBOS; Computer Assisted Web Interview (CAWI), where respondents filled in the online questionnaire independently, gaining access by means of a login and password provided in an introductory letter from CBOS. In all three cases the questionnaire had the same structure and comprised the same questions. The survey was carried out between 4–14 September 2023 inclusive on a sample of 1073 people (62.7% using the CAPI method, 23.4% CATI and 13.9% CAWI). CBOS has been conducting statutory research using the above procedure since May 2020, stating in each case the percentage of personal, telephone and internet interviews.
