Making use of random samples allows us to reach conclusions about the population of adult Poles and to determine the scale of statistical error in our evaluations. For more about our methodology (in Polish only) please see the CBOS website, in the BADANIA tab.

The last weeks of the school holidays, when compared to the beginning of July, have brought no significant changes in support either for the ruling party or for the parties in opposition. If there had been parliamentary elections in the second half of August, only four of the parties currently in the Sejm would have got in: Law and Justice (PiS), Civic Platform (PO), Ryszard Petru’s .Modern and Kukiz ’15. The changes observed since the beginning of July in support for PiS, PO and .Modern are not statistically significant. It is worth adding that the increase in support for PO over .Modern has not made the difference between them statistically significant.

Law and Justice has achieved its best result since the elections in October 2015, but from the point of view of statistical significance the difference between now and then is not meaningful (the current result of 41.5%, with a confidence level of 95%, indicates that actual support for PiS among adult Poles is in the interval of 37.6% to 45.3%).