Making use of random samples allows us to reach conclusions about the population of adult Poles and to determine the scale of statistical error in our evaluations. For more about our methodology (in Polish only) please see the CBOS website, in the BADANIA tab.

After the holidays, despite an increased interest in voting in a hypothetical parliamentary election (66%, up 6 percentage points from the last survey), there has been no significant change in support either for the ruling party or for those in opposition (any changes are not statistically significant). It is worth adding that if a parliamentary election were to take place in the first half of September, only three parties could be certain of winning seats in the Sejm. The result attained this month by Kukiz’15 might not give them the 5% minimum support necessary to take seats in a future Sejm (a result of 6% with a confidence level of 95% indicates that actual support for Kukiz’15 among adult Poles is between 4.4% and 8.0%).