Making use of random samples allows us to reach conclusions about the population of adult Poles and to determine the scale of statistical error in our evaluations. For more about our methodology (in Polish only) please see the CBOS website, in the BADANIA tab.

Support for the main parties on the political scene has not changed significantly since September. If there were a parliamentary election in mid October, Law and Justice would win by a landslide, with a result equally good as in last year’s election. The ruling party’s current standing (38.4% declared support) means that, with an assumed confidence level of 95%, actual support for this party among the whole population of adult Poles is between 34.5% and 42.2%. Both .Modern and Civic Platform could be sure of seats in the Sejm if an election were to be held now, but the result obtained by Kukiz’15 gives no guarantee of parliamentary seats (a result of 6% means that, at a confidence level of 95%, support for Kukiz’15 among the whole population of adult Poles is between 4.3% and 8.1%, where 5% is the minimum needed actually to sit in the Sejm).