The first round of presidential elections in Poland will take place in May 2025. Our March survey shows that Rafał Trzaskowski enjoys the greatest support of potential voters (34%). Less than a quarter of declared participants in the May vote would support the PiS candidate, Karol Nawrocki (23%), and slightly fewer would vote for Sławomir Mentzen (21%), representing the Confederation. The remaining candidates for the presidency enjoy much less support. Szymon Hołownia could count on 4% of votes, while 3% would vote for the Razem party candidate Adrian Zandberg, 2% would support Magdalena Biejat, Grzegorz Braun and Krzysztof Stanowski, while Marek Jakubiak could count on 1% of votes. Seven in a hundred potential participants in the May vote do not know who they would vote for (7%).

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

Due to the current international situation, security is very clearly present in the election campaign. The process of increasing security covers various levels. The following are undoubtedly important here: good international policy, alliances and cooperation with other countries, as well as expenditure on the armed forces, its armament and military infrastructure. However, policies to improve security can also be made at the social level. Our 2022 study showed that, according to Poles, social conflicts have the greatest impact on reducing the national security. In other words: increasing the level of security also takes place by easing tensions and social conflicts, strengthening the political community and citizens' identification. This, in turn, depends largely on how egalitarian the society is and on the scale of exclusion. We were interested in these aspects in the context of the upcoming elections. Therefore, we asked the respondents which of the people running for president would contribute the most to:

• Poland being safe;
• no-one feeling worse or excluded;
• the formation of a community, which would not be divided and conflicted.

It turned out that Rafał Trzaskowski is the candidate who, as president, would contribute the most to increasing the security of our country and eliminating social divisions and marginalization, according to the plurality of respondents. He is indicated - in the three aspects mentioned above - by 33%, 27% and 26% of respondents, respectively. Karol Nawrocki is second in this respect. About one-fifth of Poles attributed potential merits in these areas to him (19%, 18% and 18%, respectively). Sławomir Mentzen is in third place. In terms of ensuring Poland's security, he is similar to Karol Nawrocki (17%), but fewer people believe that he would contribute to increasing the sense of community and mitigating social conflicts (12%) and to greater equality and reducing the scale of exclusion (9%), which shows that respondents understand the libertarian assumptions of his program quite well.

Which of these people, as president, would contribute the most to ensuring that: