On the night of September 9-10, the Polish airspace was repeatedly violated by drones approaching from the east. For the first time in history, the Polish military, along with NATO allies, decided to neutralize them. In the days following this event, we asked Poles again about their sense of threat to the independence of our country and their confidence in the support from allies in the event of a threat to Polish borders.

Almost two-thirds of respondents (63%) believe that there is currently a threat to Poland's independence. This is the highest figure in the history of our surveys on this topic since February 1991. In contrast, just over a quarter of respondents (26%) disagreed. It is worth noting that in early May 2022, less than three months after the start of Russia's armed invasion of Ukraine, despite a clear increase in the sense of threat, opinions among Poles on this matter were very divided, with slightly more respondents expressing the view that Polish independence was not threatened (43% compared to 42% who were afraid).

Is there at present a threat to Poland's independence?

It is noteworthy that earlier the situation was rated the worst in April 2014, after the "referendum" in Crimea and the annexation of the peninsula by the Russian Federation. At that time, 47% of respondents perceived a threat to Poland's independence, while 41% did not. The third time in the history of these surveys when respondents more often expressed the belief that there was a threat to Poland's independence than those who thought otherwise (44% to 33%) was in February 1991. At that time, Poland was still a member of the Warsaw Pact, Soviet troops were stationed in its territory, and the belief in the threat to independence was most often expressed by supporters of the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the formation of a military alliance with the West. Current survey results indicate that the perception of state security, especially the sense of threat to Poland's independence, is primarily linked to the activities of our largest eastern neighbour.

More than two-thirds (68%) of respondents believe that Poland can currently be confident in NATO allies' commitment to defend our borders in the event of a threat, although only 14% are firmly convinced of this. Less than a quarter (24%) of those questioned believe that such confidence cannot be held at this time, and 8% abstained from taking a position on this issue. Compared to the results from six months ago, the percentage declaring confidence in allies' commitment to defend our borders has increased by 7 percentage points, while the number of sceptics has decreased by 4 points.

Poland's security is based on its membership in the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO). In your opinion, can Poland currently be certain of the involvement of its allies in the potential defence of our borders?

It is worth noting that in the previous measurement in March 2025, we recorded a significant decrease in the perceived confidence in NATO's commitment (a drop from 79% to 61%), which was likely related to statements by representatives of the current U.S. administration, who distanced themselves from unconditional commitment to defend allies. The current improvement in opinions, while statistically significant, has not offset this decline, most likely because while the majority of Poles positively assessed the response of European allies to the incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace, nearly two-thirds believed that the U.S. response was insufficient. These data are discussed in more detail in the next segment.